Early Retirement via BTC - Volume # 4
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The last time I wrote an Early Retirement - Volume #3 last Oct 2024 bitcoin was at $64,000
This month, post elections, bitcoin has rallied up to $94,000 another new all-time high.
Looks like we are leaving the consolidation range between 60ks to 70ks since March. Price was hovering between 60k and 70k, with flash crashes of $49k in August and another flash crash of $52k in September (I can’t remember the exact amounts of the wicks). Looking back now, these 2 corrections were great buying opportunity.
I took advantage of the September dip to buy the dip. I’ve written about that here:
💵 Fiat Cost, Market Value and BTC Total Stack
This chart includes:
Fiat (black) - total pesos amount I converted to the best asset ever.
Market Value (green) - the market value of bitcoin in pesos.
BTC Total Stack (units) - the total SATS. This is the most important line; it should continue to go up regardless of price.
I now updated this chart to include my traditional IBKR portfolio.
You can see that there is noticeable dip on the orange line (sats). It is because I re-allocated bitcoin in cold storage to MSTR in my IBKR portfolio.
This may seem like a controversial move especially for bitcoiners.
I respect those opinions and I still own a big percentage of my overall net worth in cold storage.
I made this decision because of two things:
The more I study MSTR, the more I became bullish on it on wanted more MSTR because I view at as a leverage bitcoin vehicle. Of course, there are risk and trade-offs.
I want to build my IBKR portfolio because I plan on using this to generate cashflows by selling covered calls and selling cash secured puts in the future.
My IBKR portfolio is currently doing very well because I was lucky that I entered MSTR leaps at the right time. Of course, these positions can still go bad.
If things will continue to go well, I may not have to sell bitcoin in cold storage anymore next year Q4 2025.
Originally, I do plan selling some btc in cold storage next Q4 2025 to pay some of my debts. But since IBKR portfolio is doing well, I maybe don’t have to sell btc in cold storage anymore. I need to sell the MSTR leaps anyway because these are investments that will expire. If things go well, the MSTR leaps can cover the fiat amount that I want to take off from my investments next Q4 2025. I will talk more about this MSTR leaps on another post.
🧻 Speculative attack
This chart visualizes the current value of my BTC stack + IBKR portfolio (orange line) &
The outstanding fiat value (including interest) of my fiat debt.
Fiat debt line includes repayments, so it may go down and also up depending if I take on new debt to buy BTC.
I said in my post last October 2024 that I took another loan to stack more and probably that is the last loan I will take this cycle.
I will be looking to get another loan if we get a bear market in 2026.
The past months are gratifying, because this speculative attack or simply just borrowing fiat to buy more bitcoin is working well.
For context last Feb 2024, the ratio of the market value of assets to liabilities is 1.22x
It means that my assets are 1.22x larger than my debts.
Now that ratio is at 3.56x.
All just because of bitcoin & MSTR going up.
Now I don’t want to give the impression that this is easy. I started buying bitcoin and taking on debt since 2022. Nothing really happens from 2022 up to just last quarter of 2023. Unfortunately, I wasn’t tracking my assets and liabilities back then, so I am not able to show it on the chart, but I assure that it did not look good. My assets are probably the same value with the liabilities most of 2022 and 2023.
I learn a lot of lessons when I started buying bitcoin in March 2022. That’s why moving forward, I will be more strategic on taking on debt to buy bitcoin.
I don’t recommend this doing also now because I think the best time to do that was 2 years ago when bitcoin was at $15k.
If my friend will ask me if it is okay to take on debt now to buy bitcoin, I will just say DCA first. Of course, not financial advice also.
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